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Posts Tagged ‘democrat’

Redistricting coming to DeKalb

July 22, 2011 1 comment

I chatted with a local politician recently, and we covered a mryiad of topics including redistricting that will add a 14th congressional seat for Georgia. The seat is going to go to an exurban county on the outer fringes of the northern metro was his evaluation. With that additional seat comes a redrawing of all congressional district lines in georgia. Since Repiublicans control al three branches of Goverment in Georgia, it is a foregone conclusion that the seat will be drawn in such a fashion that a Republican will win the seat with ease. As for the other districts, compromise and legal precedent will shape how those districts are drawn. From what I am told, the fourth district represented by Hank Johnson will be extended futher east taking in the rest of Rockdale county and parts of Newton county.  If the 4th is moved further east, then you may see the fifth moving further east as well. I can remember when the 5th was generally the city of Atlanta. it has since expanded to areas of DeKalb that border the city. In the new alignment, the 5th would suck up what is much of DeKalb inside the perimeter and and South of interstate 85 on the northside. The 5th would become an inside the perimeter district with a few exceptions. I was also told that the fith could extend down into Clayton County to take in parts of riverdale wich is now part of the 13th district represented by David Scott. If that happens, then the 13th would be cut off from the rest of the district in the western part of the metro. That could mean that David Scotts district could be the sacrificial lamb in the redistricting talks. The sixth district in north DeKalb could extend further south down to I-85 inside of 285. If all of this holds true, then DeKalb will continue to be represented by four different congressmen, more than any jurisdiction in the state. Want more info on redistricting, go here to see meeting schedules and times

Mid-term elections: My final analysis

November 3, 2010 Comments off

Well the voters spoke and what they said spoke volumes here locally especially at the school board level. I have not seen turnout numbers yet, but it seems there were better than expected turnouts especially for South DeKalb.

The Republican sacrificial lamb went down in flames against Hank Johnson. I will admit, I was not surprised by the Johnson victory. After all this is an overwhelmingly democratic district. What was surprising was that Liz Carter did not get a higher percentage of votes. Historically, Republicans have gotten about a third of the vote. Carter got only 25 percent. She lost all three counties, but kept it close in Rockdale and Gwinnett. In GWX she won 43 percent and I Rockdale she won 47 percent. It was DeKalb that cost her big time. DeKalb was won by Johnson 79 percent to 20 percent. That is a pure rejection by DeKalb voters of the Republican candidate. I cannot wait to see actual precinct numbers. Carter showed her face at events in South DeKalb more than Johnson, so I would like to see how bad she actually did in southern precincts. These numbers confirm to me that no Republican no matter how moderate can win in the fourth short of redistricting which is coming soon.

Democrat David Scott cruised into another term taking out Republican challenger Mike Crane by more than 2 to 1. Crane lost in every county in the district. The only county where it was close was Douglas, he was  just over 1000 votes behind. The rest were a wash. The Secretary of State’s office is reporting that as of lunchtime Wednesday, only two-thirds of Cobbs vote had been recorded, but I doubt there are enough out there to change the outcome.

The two races above and the 5th district with John Lewis tells me that Democrats have a stranglehold on certain districts, and they can rest assured that those districts will deliver to the Democrats quite reliably. Now let’s see if the Democrats return the favor. To see just how the Democrats have DeKalb in their pocket, consider this; of the major statewide races (Gov., Lt. Gov., SOS, AG, Insurance and Agriculture Commissioner, Labor Commissioner and State School Super.), every Democrat running for those offices got 70 plus percent of the vote.

 

I did not cover the Governor’s race to tough because after the primary it was obvious which party was going to be in the state capitol. What I do want to touch on is redistricting. The Republicans hold all the key statewide positions that influence how districts will be drawn. With Georgia’s population growth in the last decade we are going to get at least one additional House representative and possibly a second. If that’s the case, districts will have to be redrawn. Democrats are going to have a tough time getting districts drawn anywhere near what they want to see. And although the Obama Justice Department has to approve any possible redraw, it is going to be very interesting to see where we all fall in the new order. DeKalb which covers parts of four districts, could see drastic changes in the next year or so. Watch the 13th. People do not like how it meanders around the perimeter from South DeKalb To southern Cobb County. Also watch the 4th. One representative is rumored to want to see the sixth drop further down from its present borders.

Now to the school board. When I first saw initial results on election night around 10 pm I was livid. All of the challengers were behind and behind big. Within a couple of hours the numbers had started to settle and things did not look too bad. As it stands now, no incumbent was defeated outright. District 1 and 7 are going to a runoff. District 3, 5, and 9 are wins for the incumbent. If all things hold as they are, only two seats stand a chance at changing. To me that is not enough. It says overall the citizens are satisfied with the direction of the school board. Donna Edler came close to unseating Zepora Roberts, but fell short. In district 1 Nancy Jester finished at the top but could not clear the 50 plus 1 hurdle. Two things about the run-off in both districts. In both, the incumbent actually received less votes. In District 1 if you combine jesters totals with that of Merope Gillis, the voters actually wanted Jim Redovian out. The voters who wanted Redovian out just split on who they wanted. The same was evident in the 7th. Sixty-one percent of votes cast were against Zepora Roberts. If these trends hold those two seats are gains for those who think it is time for a change. The second observation is will enough voters remain discontent and return to the polls to deliver the message they sent on Tuesday. After all people wanted to see something change in those two districts. If bad news continues to flow out about DeKalb schools then the challengers can win. If the fight is gone and people do not show, the incumbents can get more of their people to the polls and that means sure defeat in the run-off for Jester and Edler.

A couple of other things on the board. Jay Cunningham received 64 percent of the vote in district 5. A man with a felony theft conviction and possible conflicts of interest should have had a rougher time than he did. What is really depressing is that there was one a possibly two candidates that were clearly qualified to do the job. In the past SACS has said that accreditation was not on the line in DeKalb. The also stated they wanted to see how the lections turn out. If none of the challengers’ win in run-offs, will this affect SACS view of the system.

 

DeKalb Results here: http://web.co.dekalb.ga.us/Voter/pdf/GEResult11102010.pdf

 

Now it is the voters turn

November 1, 2010 1 comment

Now that all of the political ads have run. After all the pundits have prognosticated, and  all the polls have predicted, it is now time for the voter to have his/her say. The voters have to decide what is best for the country, the state, and the district. Neither of the major parties has all the answers. If any one of them did we would not be in the mess we are in now.  In fact the answers lie somewhere in between the the three big boys. There are reasonable people in most parties, but it is the outspoken who command the attention of voters.  Ignore them, for the represent all that is bad in political parties. Party loudmouths and their supporters will vote for corrupt and incompetence just to stay loyal to the party.  A stupid Democrat is a stupid Democrat why put him/her in office. A corrupt Republican is a corrupt Republican. Why choose him/her just because they have an (R) behind their name. When I walk into that booth on Tuesday, I am going to vote for the person who I feel has a vision that is closely inline with the way I think the country should be moving. Party affiliation is not an issue. I challenge all of you to do the same. Don’t ignore or support a candidate based on party alone. If you do you do so you may get that corrupt (R) or that incompetent (D) running things for the next few years or so.

Mo’ Money in the 4th

June 28, 2010 Comments off

Money means so much when running a political campaign. It can make an unknown candidate a household name overnight. Here are some tidbits I found on the candidates who are running for the congressional seat held by Hank Johnson. These are not eye-popping numbers, but I think it shows how competitive this race will be. If it were not for the PAC’s financing of Johnson, he would be right down there with Vernon Jones and Liz Carter in terms of funds raised from individuals, although he still has raised double what Vernon has in individual contributions. The number that surprises me here is the amount of money Liz Carter has on hand. She has raised just over $28,000 but has about $6,100 on hand. These numbers of course have changed since they were reported in March of this year.  Get the same data and more at the following links:

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=GA04&cycle=2010

http://www.fec.gov/

Raised

Hank Johnson (D)* $290,143
Vernon A. Jones (D) $37,570
Liz Carter (R) $28,336
Connie Stokes (D) $16,340
Cory Ruth (R) $6,792
Lawrence F. Gause (R) $2,300
Victor Armendariz (R) $0

Hank highlights

72 percent from PAC’s, expected since he is the incumbent and has a wider circle of support

$79,000 from individuals about double Vernon.

$64,000 on hand also double Vernon.

Hanks top contributors:

National Beer Wholesalers Assn: & $11,000

American Assn for Justice: $10,000

Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers: $10,000

United Food & Commercial Workers $7500

AFLAC inc.: $7000



Vernon highlights

$37,500 raised

$31,000 on hand

No debt
Vernon has no data for top contributor

Liz Carter highlights

Raised: $28,336

Spent: $22,219

On Hand: $6116

Debt: $1,600

Liz Carter Top Contributors

Davis Wright Tremaine LLP: $2,400

American Hermetics: $2,000

American Hermetics of Ga: $2,000

Iovation Inc.: $1,500

Inside Gwinnett: $1,295

Connie Stokes highlights

Raised: $16,340

Spent: $7,130

On Hand: $9,210

Debt: >$80,000

Individual Contributions: $7,110 or 44%

Self-financing $5,880 or 36%

Top contributors to Connie

Ngp Software: $2,600

Mme: $1,000

Where the mony comes from: In state vs Out of state funds. Not surprising that Hank gets a lot of cash from outside. What is surprising is the out of state money for Liz Carter

In State        Out State    No State

Hank Johnson (D) $53,175 (76%) $17,000 (24%) $2,000 (3%)
Vernon A. Jones (D) $34,700 (99%) $250 (1%) $0 (0%)
Liz Carter (R) $9,691 (49%) $10,000 (51%) $0 (0%)
Connie Stokes (D) $3,850 (55%) $3,100 (45%) $0 (0%)
Lawrence F. Gause (R) $600 (50%) $600 (50%) $0 (0%)
Cory Ruth (R) $601 (100%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)
Victor Armendariz (R) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)

Fresh ideas will never get a chance

May 1, 2010 Comments off

I was reading this particular posting about ballot access laws in the nation. What stood out for me were a couple of things. First was the fact that Georgia has some of the most restrictive ballot access laws in the nation. Basically you must get 1% of the registered voters to sign a petition for you to get on the ballot in Georgia. Unless of course you are a Democrat or a Republican. Take a gander at who made these laws and the courts that continually uphold them; Democrats and Republicans. I raise this point because as a voter, I am tired of the either or options. It is always liberal Democrat or conservative Republican as the choices I have when I go to the polls. It would be nice to have a choice from a person who believes in lower taxes, and a moderate welfare system meant to help those who truly need it. A candidate can be for abortion, and a strong military. There are voters out there who have a variety of beliefs that are not always consistently on one side or another. We need candidates who are like the voters. We need candidates that don’t think and Oath of Loyalty to a party idea makes you a better candidate. The other thing that stood out was democracy angle. In a democracy people have the opportunity to voice their opinions and dislikes. In our representative democracy, we give that voice to our elected officials. When you have only two options to choose from, you are not voicing your opposition or dislikes, you are basically being asked to choose the lesser of two evils. If they wanted the system to be fair, they would allow any citizen who can fork over a modest amount of cash get on the ballot. And any party that registers with the Secretary of State would be allowed to have his or her candidate on the ballot. This will not completely fix the two party monopoly, but it would be a good place to start.

Check out the ballot access article here

Governor’s race – The candidates

March 31, 2010 Comments off

I have been spewing a lot about the congressional races that affect South DeKalb, but have neglected the race for the CEO of the great state of Georgia. So here they are with some campaign sites and my take on each of course. my list is not exhuastive. for the complete list of the governors race as well as others check out this page from the Sec. of States website

Democrats

  • Thurbert Baker, Smart guy, knows his stuff, needs to fix his cut though. Can he win? No. Not because he is not qualified, but because history says he can’t win.
  • Roy Barnes, The former head man is qualified; after all he has held the job before. Can he win? Of course he can win, but he won’t
  • Carl Camon, I didn’t know who this was until I started this list. His bio suggests a hard worker who was not privileged like some of the other candidates. Can he win? No. Small town mayor ain’t enough to overcome the history that says he can’t win.
  • DuBose Porter, This guy seems squeaky clean. Church man, Eagle Scout, family man, all great things. Can he win? Maybe. He might be a dark horse, if he doesn’t have any skeletons.
  • David Poythress, I like this guy. He is a military man, although it is was the Air Force. It is hard to go wrong with a military man. He has been in many leadership positions. Can he win? I think he could go all the way and get beat by any Republican.

Libertarian

Republicans

  • Jeff Chapman, Can he win? I don’t know. Probably not. But who knows. He does have the best website of all the candidates.
  • Nathan Deal, I wonder if this ethics thing has any legs? Can he win? Polling says he is competitive, and would beat Roy Barnes if he were the Republican candidate and Barnes was the  Democrat choice.