DeKalb could lose two State Reps.

That’s right folks. DeKalb, since it has grown slower than its exurban counterparts to the north will more than likely lose two of its state representatives to some far flung semi-rural backwater in the north Georgia mountains. That from the lips of district 90 representative Howard Mosby who was in attendance at the redistricting meeting held by Kathie Gannon in Gresham Park this week. Though he did not call it a rural backwater, Mosby’s speculation sort of mirrors what I posted last week about congressional redistricting in DeKalb. Power in the state house and Congress is leapfrogging the southern parts of the metro in favor of the far northern counties. From a political standpoint it means a smaller voice in the legislature. From an economic standpoint, it could mean fewer dollars for things like roads and transit. No details came forward as to which representatives would lose their seat, but Mosby did say that during redistricting, recently voted in members have an advantage. But that’s not all. Our school districts will go from nine to seven thanks to recently passed legislation. That means two members could be drawn out or forced to run against another incumbent. Again those recently elected have an advantage over those who have not faced a re-election since 2010. Those of you who wanted Cunningham or Copelin-Woods gone may have to wait for another election cycle. And finally, our esteemed board of commissioners will have their districts redrawn. District 5, Lee Mays dominion, is the largest district by size and population, so it will have to be cut down to help districts three and four become more balanced in terms of population. No one will be drawn out of the commission districts, though several are up for re-election.

As I was writing the above, the AJC posted what could be the first version of new congressional districts in Georgia. From what I can tell, DeKalb county will have three reps instead of four. It looks like David Scott in the 13th had the few thousand people in extreme South DeKalb taken away and put into John Lewis’ 5th district. As I was told by a politician recently, the 4th did slide further east taking in all of Rockdale, and some of Newton. From this map I cannot tell for sure if the 6th dipped further down into DeKalb, but it does look as though most of north DeKalb and North Atlanta are now in the 6th district. If this map holds, it looks like all three Democrats in Atlanta Metro are safe. I do wonder though if stretching the 4th all the way to Newton wouldn’t make the 4th a little more conservative, and give Hank Johnson a challenge for his seat. Of the three metro area Democrats, Hanks seat may be the least safe. Here is a copy of the map.

Redistricting coming to DeKalb

I chatted with a local politician recently, and we covered a mryiad of topics including redistricting that will add a 14th congressional seat for Georgia. The seat is going to go to an exurban county on the outer fringes of the northern metro was his evaluation. With that additional seat comes a redrawing of all congressional district lines in georgia. Since Repiublicans control al three branches of Goverment in Georgia, it is a foregone conclusion that the seat will be drawn in such a fashion that a Republican will win the seat with ease. As for the other districts, compromise and legal precedent will shape how those districts are drawn. From what I am told, the fourth district represented by Hank Johnson will be extended futher east taking in the rest of Rockdale county and parts of Newton county.  If the 4th is moved further east, then you may see the fifth moving further east as well. I can remember when the 5th was generally the city of Atlanta. it has since expanded to areas of DeKalb that border the city. In the new alignment, the 5th would suck up what is much of DeKalb inside the perimeter and and South of interstate 85 on the northside. The 5th would become an inside the perimeter district with a few exceptions. I was also told that the fith could extend down into Clayton County to take in parts of riverdale wich is now part of the 13th district represented by David Scott. If that happens, then the 13th would be cut off from the rest of the district in the western part of the metro. That could mean that David Scotts district could be the sacrificial lamb in the redistricting talks. The sixth district in north DeKalb could extend further south down to I-85 inside of 285. If all of this holds true, then DeKalb will continue to be represented by four different congressmen, more than any jurisdiction in the state. Want more info on redistricting, go here to see meeting schedules and times

Issues South DeKalb should keep an eye on.

Congressional District Lines

the redrawing of congressional lines and legislature lines will take center stage this summer. In August, a special session will begin the process of redrawing district lines to accommodate this states increase in population. As it stands the legislature will have 14 districts to draw as oppose to 13. Since republicans control all three branches of state government, you can expect Democrats to fare poorly during this once a decade redrawing. I for one hope the legislature looks at how DeKalb is carved up. DeKalb, with a population around 750 thousand has 4 congressional districts. That’s more than Fulton or Gwinnett. The legislature should bring all of DeKalb that is not in the 6th district or in the city of Atlanta back into the fourth. See a possible district breakdown here. DeKalb is basically an urban county with issues that more align with the central city than with more rural areas like Rockdale, or Henry, or South Fulton county. It is going to be interesting to see how the legislature deals with DeKalb. Aside from the congressional redrawing,  what could have a greater impact on DeKalb is the representation in the statehouse. As the AJC has reported on several occasions, DeKalb, along with Fulton has not kept pace in terms of growth with its exurban counterparts. In the state legislature DeKalb could lose a seat or two, weakening its delegation in the statehouse. That weakening would be a strengthening for a county like Forsyth wich has only a fraction of the population of DeKalb. If DeKalb does lose a seat or two, we all can guess where those seats will come from. If you want more info on the redrawing, check out this Google search

Transportation

In the fall people all across the Metro area will vote whether or not to tax themselves an additional penny to fund transportation infrastructure throughout the region. By late August we should know exactly wich projects voters will be asked to fund. Many projects will affect South DeKalb. Things like mass transit, road improvements and interchange improvements are all on the list for DeKalb. I have stated in a prior post that I am not against a self-imposed tax for better transportation service throughout the metro. What I fear is that DeKalb residents will pay more and receive less. Rail service has been talked about in South DeKalb for decades, but none has materialized. The state DOT has already nixed the idea of rail service to Conyers, and rightfully so. The density of the population that far out just doesn’t warrant it just yet. But some sort of rail service to South DeKalb is long overdue. Two options benefitting South DeKalb could be placed on the final list for voters to approve. One  is rail transit from downtown to Candler Road and the other is  an extension of the Blue Line to Wesley Chapel. The cynic in me says neither will get the needed support from the roundtable that is tasked with providing the final list. If the final list comes out, and all we get in DeKalb are interchange improvements and other areas get more options, I would be inclined to say no to a new tax. But I will keep an open mind about the whole thing.

Policing

A friend of mine had his home broken into recently. The police responded and we started talking about police coverage where he lives. What he told me was astonishing. He said on any given night there are four cars patrolling an area from Moreland Avenue to Wesley Chapel/Flakes Mill Rd south of I-20. Yea that’s a huge area. I was shocked that an area that is so huge would have only four cars. My first instinct was to think the officer was exaggerating, but when a second car showed up, he said the same thing without knowing what we and the previous officer had spoken about. After a little bit of searching, I found this map of the South Precinct. If these divisions represent individual beats within the precinct, then I can see how its possible for only four cars to patrol the area. But even worse is that these same areas are becoming crime-ridden but a surge in police coverage has not kept pace.  It seems to me that the police are in a respond to incidents stage than proactively policing areas that are vulnerable to criminal activity.

A quick conversation with Cory Ruth

I had the opportunity to meet and talk with Cory Ruth recently about issues that affect DeKalb County, and our little chat shed some insight on the man who once sought to replace Hank Johnson as the 4th distict representative from Georgia. We discussed several issues including his possible plans to seek elected office in 2012. He did not rule out a possible run for Congress again, but said he wanted to wait to see how the Legislature would handle redistricting of congressional lines. We both were in agreement that DeKalb should be consolidated into one or two congressional districts instead of the four districts we presently have. When asked if there was a local office he would run for, specifically CEO of DeKalb, he would only state that he had not decided, and would have to take a serious look at the numbers before he would even consider such a move. He reiterated that he would seek no office where he did not have a reasonable chance of winning. As a Republican, Ruth would have a hard time trying to get DeKalb’s top job.

We also talked developement opportunities in South DeKalb. He saw opportunity for South DeKalb to have economic growth in the near future. His pro-buisness approach was refreshing. He said he would love to talk to businesses who have located in counties outside of DeKalb to help determine what was it about DeKalb that turned them away. He also said he would talk with businesses in DeKalb and ask them why they are in DeKalb. He would use that info to try and lure more businesses to DeKalb. Given it’s proximity to the airport and access to several major interstates, Ruth found it hard to believe that Dekalb could not attract more businesses especially outside of the perimeter area. He also talked about how more businesses in DeKalb would put less strain on families who now spend up to two hours daily traveling to and from their places of employment. This, he believes would have a positive impact on parents who find it hard to be more active in their kids education and social lives.

When I asked if a Republican could win an elected office in DeKalb, he said yes, but would have to make some serious progress in convincing the African-American vote in South DeKalb that Republicans have a plan that will bring jobs and economic growth to the area. He pointed out me a project in New York where faith based and business organizations are reviving communities by providing educational opportunities, housing, and business support to local communities all without government intervention. Ruth believes that government intervention is not the complete answer to the ills that affect DeKalb, but he also said the old “pull yourself up by the bootstraps” adage is a not the only answer either.

Ruth strikes me as a common sense person who would definitely abandon the old ways of doing business. He is young, intelligent and very deliberate in his thoughts and ideas. Could he win a seat in Congress from DeKalb? Probably not. Could he be the next CEO of DeKalb? I would not bet my paycheck on it. If he were to decide to run for office again, he would have a mighty hill to climb to overcome entrenched Democrat loyalty in DeKalb. He says that he made some mistakes in his run for Congress in 2010, but that he learned from those mistakes and would do things differently a second time around. I for one would like to see him run for CEO of DeKalb. If the citizens of DeKalb truly want to see this county rise again, electing a fresh face and inserting some new ideas into the conversation will go a long way in making that rise possible. DeKalb needs a new direction and a new mindset. If we continue to go down the path we are presently on we will never return to the days when DeKalb was a place people actually wanted to live and play in.

Mid-term elections: My final analysis

Well the voters spoke and what they said spoke volumes here locally especially at the school board level. I have not seen turnout numbers yet, but it seems there were better than expected turnouts especially for South DeKalb.

The Republican sacrificial lamb went down in flames against Hank Johnson. I will admit, I was not surprised by the Johnson victory. After all this is an overwhelmingly democratic district. What was surprising was that Liz Carter did not get a higher percentage of votes. Historically, Republicans have gotten about a third of the vote. Carter got only 25 percent. She lost all three counties, but kept it close in Rockdale and Gwinnett. In GWX she won 43 percent and I Rockdale she won 47 percent. It was DeKalb that cost her big time. DeKalb was won by Johnson 79 percent to 20 percent. That is a pure rejection by DeKalb voters of the Republican candidate. I cannot wait to see actual precinct numbers. Carter showed her face at events in South DeKalb more than Johnson, so I would like to see how bad she actually did in southern precincts. These numbers confirm to me that no Republican no matter how moderate can win in the fourth short of redistricting which is coming soon.

Democrat David Scott cruised into another term taking out Republican challenger Mike Crane by more than 2 to 1. Crane lost in every county in the district. The only county where it was close was Douglas, he was  just over 1000 votes behind. The rest were a wash. The Secretary of State’s office is reporting that as of lunchtime Wednesday, only two-thirds of Cobbs vote had been recorded, but I doubt there are enough out there to change the outcome.

The two races above and the 5^th district with John Lewis tells me that Democrats have a stranglehold on certain districts, and they can rest assured that those districts will deliver to the Democrats quite reliably. Now let’s see if the Democrats return the favor. To see just how the Democrats have DeKalb in their pocket, consider this; of the major statewide races (Gov., Lt. Gov., SOS, AG, Insurance and Agriculture Commissioner, Labor Commissioner and State School Super.), every Democrat running for those offices got 70 plus percent of the vote.

 

I did not cover the Governor’s race to tough because after the primary it was obvious which party was going to be in the state capitol. What I do want to touch on is redistricting. The Republicans hold all the key statewide positions that influence how districts will be drawn. With Georgia’s population growth in the last decade we are going to get at least one additional House representative and possibly a second. If that’s the case, districts will have to be redrawn. Democrats are going to have a tough time getting districts drawn anywhere near what they want to see. And although the Obama Justice Department has to approve any possible redraw, it is going to be very interesting to see where we all fall in the new order. DeKalb which covers parts of four districts, could see drastic changes in the next year or so. Watch the 13^th. People do not like how it meanders around the perimeter from South DeKalb To southern Cobb County. Also watch the 4^th. One representative is rumored to want to see the sixth drop further down from its present borders.

Now to the school board. When I first saw initial results on election night around 10 pm I was livid. All of the challengers were behind and behind big. Within a couple of hours the numbers had started to settle and things did not look too bad. As it stands now, no incumbent was defeated outright. District 1 and 7 are going to a runoff. District 3, 5, and 9 are wins for the incumbent. If all things hold as they are, only two seats stand a chance at changing. To me that is not enough. It says overall the citizens are satisfied with the direction of the school board. Donna Edler came close to unseating Zepora Roberts, but fell short. In district 1 Nancy Jester finished at the top but could not clear the 50 plus 1 hurdle. Two things about the run-off in both districts. In both, the incumbent actually received less votes. In District 1 if you combine jesters totals with that of Merope Gillis, the voters actually wanted Jim Redovian out. The voters who wanted Redovian out just split on who they wanted. The same was evident in the 7^th. Sixty-one percent of votes cast were against Zepora Roberts. If these trends hold those two seats are gains for those who think it is time for a change. The second observation is will enough voters remain discontent and return to the polls to deliver the message they sent on Tuesday. After all people wanted to see something change in those two districts. If bad news continues to flow out about DeKalb schools then the challengers can win. If the fight is gone and people do not show, the incumbents can get more of their people to the polls and that means sure defeat in the run-off for Jester and Edler.

A couple of other things on the board. Jay Cunningham received 64 percent of the vote in district 5. A man with a felony theft conviction and possible conflicts of interest should have had a rougher time than he did. What is really depressing is that there was one a possibly two candidates that were clearly qualified to do the job. In the past SACS has said that accreditation was not on the line in DeKalb. The also stated they wanted to see how the lections turn out. If none of the challengers’ win in run-offs, will this affect SACS view of the system.

 

DeKalb Results here: http://web.co.dekalb.ga.us/Voter/pdf/GEResult11102010.pdf

 

A few thoughts if you please

A few thoughts on politics, government and community 

The 2010 midterm elections are approaching fast, and the there are so many candidates and offices up for election that it’s easy to get overwhelmed.  Endorsements are rolling in from groups and individuals whose motives are unknown at best. There are a lot of offices up for grabs for South DeKalb voters, so here is my rundown on some of them.

Let’s talk board of education first. EduKALB has endorsed its slate of candidates for the board of education. As we all know, the board has been the subject of some bad press lately, and the thought of having the accreditation of the county schools revoked has put the spotlight on the board members themselves. EduKALB, a reform-minded group , I think,  has endorsed Dr. Kirk Nooks in the 5th and Corey Wilson in the 3rd district. They also gave the nod to Donna Edler in the 7th district. These seem like reasonable endorsements to me. Having talked to two of the three, I came away with a good feel for both Wilson and Nooks. I have heard Ms. Edler on several occasions, and I think she will be an upgrade in the 7th. What surprised me about EduKALB was the lack of endorsement for Nancy Jester in the 1st district. She seems to be a well grounded individual that has a good command of what is going on in the system and wants to see a change in the way business is done. Maybe Jim Redovian is not like the other incumbents in that he has no dirt that is sticking to him like several of the other candidates. In any case, Voting for Jester would not hurt the 1st district in my humble opinion.

The election for the 4th district congressional seat is probably safe for Hank J., but I wonder how much of a dent Liz Carter will make. She has been at Hank from day one. Even during the primary, Hank was her primary target. She and her supporters make no bones about their lack of confidence in the present representation, but lets be real here, this is a pro Democrat district, and unless there has been some radical change in the last few minutes, it will remain just that. No Republican has gotten more than a third of the vote in this district since it was redrawn back in the mid-nineties, but Carter has been very vocal and has a solid group of hard core supporters that will probably go to the polls. Hank on the other hand has played it quiet, not engaging in debates, and basically ignoring Carter’s call for at least one debate. I do have to wonder why Hank won’t debate Carter; is it fear of a misstep that could be fatal? I doubt that even a few mistakes by Johnson would hurt him in the 4th. What I want to see is if Carter can get between 40-45 percent of the vote. If she does that would be news all its own and could signal a changing of the guard in DeKalb. 

I haven’t spent much time on the 13th district race, but I have to say this; I hope David Scott loses. Why, you ask? Well to start he doesn’t even live in the district. He would rather fight community gardens in Inman Park than live and play around the people he is supposed to represent. If you need more reasons, just Google him and then tell me you still support the guy.

The folks over at Crossroads News have been on point as of late. A series of articles taking the county to task about it’s roadside maintenance has reaped some benefits. In the past few weeks, I have seen not only county workers, but volunteers and community service folks cleaning up major thoroughfares in South DeKalb. One weekend I saw so many orange bags waiting to be picked up I had to wonder where all the trash came from. Now it is up to citizens to do their part. Trash strewn streets and waist high grass is an eyesore and shows a lack of pride in ones own backyard.

Thanks go to a DeKalb police officer who responded to my neighbors alarm. I came home one day and my neighbors alarm was going off I knew she was out of the country and had a home sitter while she was gone. I walked around the house and saw nothing out of place. I called her alarm company since I did not have the house sitters info, and advised them. They told me they saw the alarm, but it was a motion and not a window or door but would call police anyway. When the police arrived about 15 minutes later, the officer checked things out and alerted the alarm company who killed the alarm. The officer was polite and actually thanked me for alerting the alarm company. I wish I had gotten his name because all the crap that he police put up with, he took the time to be polite and friendly.

Lats but not least. The county needs to work on it’s documents depot. That is where average folk like you and me can go to see many of the documents that help us keep track of our elected officials. My beef with the DocDepot is that minutes from BOC meetings are never up to date. In fact if you go there right now, you will not see any minutes from BOC meetings since early July. I know that the minutes have to be approved by the CEO and there are some other additional hoops before they can be published, but there has to be a faster way. You will find agendas and summaries but no minutes. The minutes offer details that summaries and agendas do not. You would think that meeting minutes from August would be posted by now. In this day and age, information moves at the speed of light, but in government, it still moves at a snails pace.

Liz Carter unemployment numbers miss the mark

unemployment in DeKalb, Rockdale, Gwinnett

Ms. Carter stated that the economy is a priority issue in her District ” with almost 17% unemployment, approximately double that of the nation’s rate”;

via Message to Republicans Abroad 5: Political Sense-and, Sensibility – Washington DC Republican | Examiner.com.

It is a slow time in politics right now, especially concerning the 4th district race, but I was surprised to learn that unemployment in the 4th was nearly double that of the national average. At least that is what Liz Carter is quoted as saying at the above web-site. Apparently Ms. Carter spoke with Republicans Abroad Radio where she supposedly made the statement. After listening to the broadcast, Carter actually stated that parts of the district have rates as high as 17%. But even if she was misquoted, 17 percent unemployment seems high even for parts of the district, so I did a quick dig on the numbers. According to the the U.S. Dept. of labor, the unemployment rates for the three counties that make up the fourth averaged 10.3 percent. Rockdale at 11.2% was highest followed by DeKalb at 10.5% and Gwinnett the lowest with 9.3%. This was in July of 2010, the last numbers available. That s a far cry from 17% and right about the state average of 10.3%. Thats not saying these are great numbers, but not the 17% claimed. Since I could not find up to date district data or census tract data, I decided to use the county data as well as data for sub-groups. All of this can be easily found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because a vast majority of the district falls in DeKalb, It is safe to say that unemployment in the district is not 17%. Now I am sure there are streets, or maybe an aprtment complex or an extended stay motel with extreme rates of unemployment, but it is unlikely any significant portion of the district is suffering from 17% unemployment. For a novice or someone who knows nothing about the district,  they may think the 4th was full of unemployed, good for nothing citizens. It distorts the reality of the district which is in line with state unemployment. After talking with a campaign staffer for Carter, it was obvious that there was no intention to disparage certain parts of the district, but to an outsider it does make the district look worse off than it actually is. A better summation of the unemployment in the district would have been it hovers around ten percent with some sub-groups(teens, less educated persons), that have historically high unemployment, continuing to suffer. Some of you will try to sell me on underemployment, the folks who want to work full-time but can only get part-time work, well they are still employed. Maybe not what they want but employed none the less. I hope Liz was taken out of context and I hope she is more accurate on portraying certain parts of the district, because we all know that 17 percent unemployment would make portions of DeKalb worse off than many developing world countries.

Here is the broadcast

http://www.wsradio.com/player/wsradio-player2.cfm/type/windows/show/Republicans-Abroad-Radio/segment/34308.html

Here is the site that produced the quote and broadcast

http://www.republicansabroadradio.com/

Johnson, Carter to battle for 4th district title in November.

Well what can be said about last night’s primary results. Vernon got whacked by an incumbent who will probably return to Washington for yet another term. Liz Carter beat down her competition, and will now become the Republican’s sacrificial lamb in November.

I saw a district, and moreover a county outright reject Vernon Jones. I was one of only a handful of people who thought Jones could push Johnson to a run-off. I was wrong. I was wrong by a more than 2 to 1 vote tally. Going into Tuesday, my confidence in a Jones/Johnson run-off had waned a bit, but I still thought he would make a race of it. I had talked to a couple of people in the Jones campaign, and they told me that they felt if they could run well in Rockdale, they could challenge Johnson in DeKalb, especially South DeKalb. As I watched results start to roll in around 830, Rockdale was going solidly with Johnson. As the night wore on, Rockdale was giving Johnson a comfortable 2 to 1 edge. It never got any closer. By the time I got to Jones possible victory party around 1030 in South DeKalb, It seemed like the votes just were not going to come in. It could be a few weeks before detailed data is available on the SOS site, but I am interested to know what precincts Vernon won. When I talked with a person close to the race in the 4^th district the weekend prior to the vote, they told me that Jones would not even make the run-off. I asked why? Their response was that voters in the 4^th district do not have short memories. All the baggage that Vernon carried into this race was just too heavy a load for voters to just put away.

I know that Johnson was the incumbent, but he really thumbed his nose at the voters of this district. He put very little effort in this and took for granted that voters would give him a victory. For me this is a turn off. He only attended one forum held in the district, and public appearances were few and far between. In other words, Johnson was more than just confident of a win, he was downright cocky. That was evidenced by his line on ajc.com that he was never really concerned about this race and his desire to get back to Washington as early as possible. Come on Congressman, you can do us better than that. If he was not concerned about the primary, then he must be absolute giddy that he is facing a Republican in a district that has been slobbering over Democrats for nearly 15 years.

In the Republican race, there was only one surprise, and that was that Larry Gause actually put up a fight. Though he was summarily beaten down by a campaign that had made itself the front runner by being a part of any conversation about the 4^th, Gause’s vote tally was impressive. When this whole thing started who the heck knew who Liz Carter was. I know I didn’t. Now she is in the championship round, a veritable Cinderella if you may. How long will it be before the carriage falls back to a pumpkin, and the glass slipper comes falling off? I don’t see how Liz is going to get the votes needed to advance on to Congress. She is going to have to convert not just independents; she is going to have to pull a sizeable chunk of Democrats as well. Just look at these numbers: 57, 61, 60, 77, 63, 75, and 99. These represent the percentage of votes won for the Democrat candidate since 1996. It is truly going to be an uphill battle, especially since she did not draw Vernon Jones. I can’t wait to see how she works through this.

As for the other candidates, Cory Ruth and Victor Amendariz flamed out both manages to get just over a thousand votes. Actually Amendariz got more votes than Ruth, so on the Republican side Ruth was the biggest loser. On the Democrat side, Connie Stokes brought up the rear, but kept it close with Vernon until the end. She still has some time left in her career, she may make a few runs at Hank before it is all said and done.

4th district results updated

I just checked the SOS site, and most of the numbers coming in for the 4th are from Rockdale. Liz has a commanding lead over 2nd place Larry Gause. Hank has a greater than 2 to 1 lead on Vernon Jones who is leading Connie Stokes by just 3 percentage points

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

From SOS site

these numbers prob represent North DeKalb as South DeKalb is always late. Not looking good for vernon. Liz is pulling away with 7% reporting

Republican Candidates		Votes	% of Votes
	Lisbeth “Liz” Carter		1,038	58.2%
	Larry Gause		452	25.4%
	Cory Ruth		164	9.2%
	Victor Armendariz		129	7.2%
	Totals		1,783

Democratic Candidates		Votes	% of Votes
	Hank Johnson, Jr.		638	56.3%
	Vernon Jones		267	23.5%
	Connie Stokes		229	20.2%
	Totals		1,134

I am checking multiple sites for results including Fox5Atlanta which is the best site for results in terms of layout. All races are on one page. now i am waiting to see which sites gives latest most accurate update.

Did anyone see any of the candidates for governor in S. DeKalb this cycle. I cannot remember any one showing his/her face.

Jones, Carter, Johnson only legit contenders for 4th district

Stokes, Jones, Carter, and Gause were on time. Ruth and Amandariz made it there really late. Hank was a no show again

This weekend was a busy one for the 4^th district candidates. They were on GPB TV Friday night, and low and behold, all  showed up in the heart of South DeKalb on Saturday except one(guess who?). I am not going to give a blow by blow of either event, after all, you pretty much know what is going to be said. What I will offer is what I took away from each event. Let us start with the long shots. Larry Gause is not going to win, but he has ideas that are interesting to say the least. He is an intellectual. People do not like intellectuals, ask Al Gore. Mr. Gause believes that the folks in Washington should stay at home most of the time and spend little time in Washington. It is something I am sure he could write a book on, but who cares. People want solutions, real or not, that deal with their everyday issues. Most people could care less about the travel arrangements of their congressperson, unless there is scandal involved. Those are the facts. Not to mention lobbyists would cry foul since they would be forced to go to every little backwoods hamlet looking for congressmen to bribe. It ain’t gonna happen, and Gause is basically running on principle now. He did come to South DeKalb though, which shocked the you know what out of me. Victor Amendariz was much better on TV than he was at the South DeKalb forum. That may have been because he was so late, he only got to answer one question and do his outro. He seems a bit nervous to me. When he had the opportunity to question one opponent, it took him nearly 15 seconds to tell us who his question was for. He stumbled around and stammered like a kid who did not do his homework and was trying to answer a question. Right now, if he was being tossed hardball questions with follow-ups, he would come off pretty bad. Dude is not ready. Moving on to Cory Ruth, my golden boy a few weeks ago has lost some of his luster, and in such a short period of time. Why? I don’t know. I am not sold on him as a candidate. I have seen him in person twice, and both times he seems aloof, almost arrogant. Although he has polished answers, and has a smooth delivery that shows his knowledge of issues, I am just not feeling him. On to Ms. Stokes and her invisible campaign. I haven’t been able to get a read on her at all. If experience and knowledge were the only qualifications, she would be running neck and neck with Vernon. In this game you have to be able to connect with people and she is not connecting, at least not with me. At the forum on Saturday, the applause for her after she spoke was lackluster. I don’t think she has done anything to get her name in the conversation, good or bad. At this stage of the game, you do not want to be an unknown. It is a shame too, because she seems like such a nice person. Now that I have disposed of the also-rans, let’s talk about the three who can win. Let’s start with Hank. He missed the televised as well as the S. DeKalb forum at the mall. Now, I know he is a sitting congressman, and he has to work and campaign, but dang, you would think he would show his face every once in a while. I think he has been to one forum with the other candidates. If I am a new voter in the 4^th, I have to wonder what is up with this guy. Is he OK? Is he fit to serve? Hank is going to wake up on the 21^st and realize that he is soon to be known as the former congressman from Georgia’s 4th district. That leaves just two. I am going to start with Liz Carter. I get the feeling she has shifted this thing into cruise control, though she and her campaign will deny it. After all she does not want to expend too much energy on what seems to be a done deal on the primary. Her only competition, Cory Ruth is having his conservative credentials questioned, especially his plan to possibly bring Haitians to America while Haiti is being rebuilt. Liz banged him on that one. I checked his site like he encouraged, and this is what is in the letter today –

“My concern is that with temperatures in the nineties, no shelter, no clean water, rampant diarrhea and other diseases, human waste and dead bodies in the streets – are there discussions to begin rapidly transporting the Haitian population to neighboring countries – including the United States?”

Even though he posed it as a question, in this climate you do not want to advocate or seem to advocate bringing any foreigners  into this country to suck our resources dry. It can be the end of your campaign especially if you are a Republican. Anyway, back to Liz. She is playing it safe for now, and seems to be positioning herself for a run at the moderate and independent voters of the district. At about the eleven minute mark, she smoothly explains off any question about her position on issues relating to gays, and puts a states right spin on it. A safe move as to not alienate too many of the 4ths liberal voters. Liz Carter is definitely headed to the big dance, and the last time a moderate Republican female ran was Sunny Warren in 2000, and she got nearly 40% of the vote against a wildly popular, at the time, Cynthia McKinney. Can a moderate Republican win this district? Anything is possible, but she will have to beat an incumbent or Vernon. Last but not least, is Vernon. I am not going to say much about Vernon. The guy is a damn good campaigner, and he truly knows how to move a crowd, albeit a sympathetic crowd most of the time. On Sturday he said He has humor, and he pounds away at you with his accomplishments.  In both the televised and South DeKalb forum, he had a commanding presence on stage. I know that Vernon is playing well in South DeKalb. Just talking to folks in casual conversation, they know him, and they know what he has done, and they like him. My only fear is that his baggage is going to hurt him. It’s not deadly cargo, but it is cumbersome. Had he not been carrying so much extra baggage, I would say without a doubt he will be representing the 4^th. It is a shame too, because I much rather see a Vernon/Carter slugfest than a Hank/Carter sleepwalk.

If you missed the debates, here are the Republicans. Here are the Democrats.